Au revoir and Vaarvel

Let’s give David Davis the credit he deserves. I mean he really is outstanding. So good he performs so well out of his depth. In fairness, I think anyone is out of the depth when agreeing to hold the reigns of the worst known set of political and economic negotiations since the 1939-45 war….without your top man. Even Sir Ivan knew as early as January that this was a sinking ship and grabbed one of them strong and stable lifeboats. But what do experts and professionals know? Good riddance, we don’t need you. You lost. Move on. Brexit means Brexit. Remoaner!

On the other hand Jacob Reese-Mogg knows better. Apparently the Gravity Model of Trade is “comprehensively wrong” however he didn’t really come up with any alternative except good ol’ wishful thinking. No sorry, he did come up with something, “classical economic thinking”….BOOM! At least wishful thinking and classical economics are not mutually exclusive unlike the Irish Border conundrum.

One musn’t digress though, the focus is on Davis. Mogg, you’ll have your day!

As silly as it sounded at the time, we were assured by Davis back in April this year that the two EU agencies located in Canary Wharf would not leave London. Nevertheless, all we hear is that “the UK is leaving the European Union” and “when we leave the European Union”. Even ‘Remainers’ shout it from the rooftops above as if they have bought into the silliness of it all. So, I ask the same question then as I do now, how can the UK hold onto EU agencies if “we are leaving the European Union”?

Well, it was all theory back then I guess, wasn’t it? But Davis had the audacity to suppress it as scaremongering thus stating that it fell within the realms of the Brexit negotiating table. Fast forward just 7 months and the practice has been firmly put into place. It appears that the EU can pull out agencies whenever it wants from whoever it wants. Yes, the agencies have gone! From tonight! To Paris and Amsterdam. Au revior & vaarwel.

Interestingly, the European Banking Authority only hires 150 staff but lets read in between the lines. London is the financial heart of, er, Europe. I really thought Frankfurt would be candidate as an emerging location to be a new financial hub for the EU but Paris has triomphed and one can see a lot of positives in the EU making that move, one notably being that it’s only two hours train ride away from London. This will also benefit London whilst it takes on the world, new opportunities, new tech, brexit means brexit, get over it……oops, we did that bit, didn’t we? No seriously, I see the transition being very smooth indeed for the short term, quite possibly in the long term too but jobs will be lost. No, jobs have been lost…FACT! Read the above article in the previous paragraph. Brexit, on the other hand, does indeed provide a unknown opportunity but it’s more disruptive as staying in because there’s no real certainty. Ah, driverless cars. No, we’ll have driverless cars! At least spreadsheet Phil has a solution.

I’m thinking aloud here now, completely cynical. So cynical I now class myself in the same ‘silly’ bracket as David Davis. I do pay close attention to Sunday politics, daily politics, watch news, read news, chat to economists, etc. I attended a Dr. Angus Robertson seminar last week as he delivered the topic of new macroeconomics. While everybody else complains about hangovers and nurses them by zombie-walking to the nearest Wetherspoon for a cheap Brexit-supporting breakfast, I’m in position to consider the level of silliness that people like David Davis are capable of delivering. That’s my Sunday breakfast. Chewing the fat of lies, deceit and madness. Other reasonable, God fearing folk just generally have loads of stuff to do and rely on politicians to act in our best interests. Please note: they don’t! But why believe me. Listen to people like David Davis get things horribly wrong by ruling out economic and political theory altogether from people that do know. So let’s give Davis the credit he’s due.


The Northern Lights are out in Old Aberdeen

Fascinating stuff in Aberdeen today. No I’m not talking about the Dons 2-1 victory but rather on those Labour Councillors in their preparation to collude with Tories. 

In addition, although there is precedent at being unable to trust a Lib Dem, or their party as a whole, it remains frightening to see one of its councillors resign to go independent just in order to get into bed to make a threesome…just two weeks after running on a party ticket. Aberdeen now emerges as the battle ground where political parties argue the case for Union in so far as they will put realpolitik to one side. This demonstrates yet again how politically remote Scotland is from rUK (not inc. NI) which sees the emergent SNP (albeit powerful now for more than a decade) essentially create havoc amongst Scottish mainstream parties. You won’t get this in England nor Wales (the appetite for independence not being strong in these countries for obvious reasons) therefore those parties are not really tested south of the border. UKIP didn’t really test matters enough because it appealled to such a small audience in constituencies, however, nationally 4m votes from the 2015 general election is something that had garnered interest throughout the whole of the UK. Had UKIP lost the #EUref in June 2016 would we have seen an increase in support in this party as was witnessed in Scotland post #indyref? One thing is clear nevertheless, both SNP and UKIP are polar opposites, so does that mean Scotland and the rUK are too?

The mainstream parties in Scotland are continuing to fight a battle with fear, as well as obsessing about the rise of nationalism. It would seem the only way for politics to correct itself is to see the country go independent thus rendering their adversary ineffective. Until such times it would seem it very much is independence v’s union regardless what kind of election is in the offering to the voter. Instead of a Royal Rumble in the realms of Realpolitik what we have instead is more a case of SNP v’s the mainstream parties (Lab-LibDem-Con). 

What do you think?

(Photo credit: Me, outside Aberdeen City Council, April, 2017)